Spread: CDP Junior FC (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold AD Pasto (63%) · AD Pasto at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

CDP Junior FC5¢AD Pasto95¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AD Pasto

Consensus Traders

AD Pasto 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$808.81

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 95¢

+57% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAD Pasto at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AD Pasto

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

CDP Junior FC5%

AD Pasto95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AD Pasto5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,233

Combined PnL+$814.32

CDP Junior FC3 traders

Total Value$538.23

Total Shares1,999

Combined PnL-$5.51

AD Pasto — 63%CDP Junior FC — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	AD Pastoavg 62.9¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$837.55	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	CDP Junior FCavg 26¢	$389.99	$382.49	-$7.5	55% 22-18 (40)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	AD Pastoavg 74¢	$471.93	$376.14	-$95.78	55% 1738-1449 (3187)
└ AD Pasto leg	AD Pastoavg 74¢	$299	$210.11	-$88.89
└ CDP Junior FC leg	CDP Junior FCavg 50¢	$172.93	$166.04	-$6.89
RN1	AD Pastoavg 49.9¢	$425.98	$324.52	-$101.46	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
FI FinalOrderCTR	CDP Junior FCavg 31.7¢	$150	$151.61	+$1.61	18% 7-32 (39)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	AD Pastoavg 53¢	$70.76	$124.83	+$54.07	18% 27-121 (148)
SU suntori	AD Pastoavg 73¢	$95.23	$108.93	+$13.7	46% 1757-2031 (3788)
FE ferdinand2<$100	AD Pastoavg 71.4¢	$31.61	$42.07	+$10.46	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
poshposhCTR<$100	CDP Junior FCavg 15¢	$3.75	$4.12	+$0.37	48% 652-699 (1351)

Flaznorp

AD Pasto

Invested

$2,010.2

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$837.55

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

CDP Junior FC

Invested

$389.99

Value

$382.49

PnL

-$7.5

Record

55%

22-18 (40)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

AD Pasto

Invested

$471.93

Value

$376.14

PnL

-$95.78

Record

55%

1738-1449 (3187)

Both legs:

AD Pasto$29974¢-$88.89

CDP Junior FC$172.9350¢-$6.89

RN1

AD Pasto

Invested

$425.98

Value

$324.52

PnL

-$101.46

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

FinalOrderCTR

CDP Junior FC

Invested

$150

Value

$151.61

PnL

+$1.61

Record

18%

7-32 (39)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

AD Pasto

Invested

$70.76

Value

$124.83

PnL

+$54.07

Record

18%

27-121 (148)

suntori

AD Pasto

Invested

$95.23

Value

$108.93

PnL

+$13.7

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

ferdinand2<$100

AD Pasto

Invested

$31.61

Value

$42.07

PnL

+$10.46

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

poshposhCTR<$100

CDP Junior FC

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.37

Record

48%

652-699 (1351)

Research grade

NeutralAD Pasto at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AD Pasto

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AD Pasto wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.