Will AD Pasto vs. CDP Junior FC end in a draw?
8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 67%
$2.2K
-$101.93
85.1¢ → 85.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 88.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$164.28 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 82.2¢ | $702.91 | $773.69 | +$70.78 | 55% 1738-1449 (3187) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $122.19 | $118.79 | -$3.39 | 56% 4589-3558 (8147) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $71 | $68.5 | -$2.5 | 78% 726-207 (933) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $60.08 | $60.76 | +$0.68 | 23% 193-656 (849) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $56.22 | $57.51 | +$1.29 | 54% 529-444 (973) |
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $88.88 | $27.05 | +$3.05 | 46% 180-208 (388) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $18.54 | $18.75 | +$0.21 | 36% 269-473 (742) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $14.25 | $13 | -$1.25 | 35% 657-1232 (1889) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $20.44 | $11.32 | -$4.41 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $4.86 | $4.46 | -$0.4 | 34% 639-1259 (1898) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $4.75 | $3.04 | -$1.71 | 46% 1757-2031 (3788) |
Invested
$1,221.46
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$164.28
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$702.91
Value
$773.69
PnL
+$70.78
Record
55%
1738-1449 (3187)
RN1CTRInvested
$122.19
Value
$118.79
PnL
-$3.39
Record
56%
4589-3558 (8147)
Invested
$71
Value
$68.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
78%
726-207 (933)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$60.08
Value
$60.76
PnL
+$0.68
Record
23%
193-656 (849)
Invested
$56.22
Value
$57.51
PnL
+$1.29
Record
54%
529-444 (973)
Invested
$88.88
Value
$27.05
PnL
+$3.05
Record
46%
180-208 (388)
Invested
$18.54
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$0.21
Record
36%
269-473 (742)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$13
PnL
-$1.25
Record
35%
657-1232 (1889)
Invested
$20.44
Value
$11.32
PnL
-$4.41
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$4.46
PnL
-$0.4
Record
34%
639-1259 (1898)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$3.04
PnL
-$1.71
Record
46%
1757-2031 (3788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.