Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$11.3
82.1¢ → 82.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+32 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 82.9¢ | $378.62 | $374.55 | -$4.07 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 82.9¢ | $231.69 | $231.89 | +$0.2 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 17.5¢ | $146.94 | $142.67 | -$4.27 | |
MA MadridTime | Yesavg 82¢ | $443.01 | $373.9 | +$8.5 | 35% 622-1179 (1801) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 83¢ | $146.85 | $147.46 | +$0.61 | 55% 1709-1415 (3124) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 82.1¢ | $72.94 | $73.42 | +$0.48 | 41% 614-874 (1488) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $67.44 | $68.89 | +$1.45 | 34% 610-1204 (1814) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $22.53 | $23.03 | +$0.5 | 23% 192-655 (847) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.15 | -$0 | 49% 1338-1368 (2706) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $4.36 | $4.12 | -$0.24 | 59% 3556-2431 (5987) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $0.2 | $0.2 | -$0 | 35% 235-434 (669) |
Invested
$378.62
Value
$374.55
PnL
-$4.07
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
Both legs:
Invested
$443.01
Value
$373.9
PnL
+$8.5
Record
35%
622-1179 (1801)
Invested
$146.85
Value
$147.46
PnL
+$0.61
Record
55%
1709-1415 (3124)
Invested
$72.94
Value
$73.42
PnL
+$0.48
Record
41%
614-874 (1488)
Invested
$67.44
Value
$68.89
PnL
+$1.45
Record
34%
610-1204 (1814)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$22.53
Value
$23.03
PnL
+$0.5
Record
23%
192-655 (847)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.15
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
1338-1368 (2706)
Invested
$4.36
Value
$4.12
PnL
-$0.24
Record
59%
3556-2431 (5987)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
235-434 (669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.