Will AD Pasto win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$2.1K
-$14.01
93.5¢ → 92.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 93.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$18.08 | 33% 544-1120 (1664) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 93¢ | $385.86 | $383.79 | -$2.07 | 33% 546-1093 (1639) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 93¢ | $313.93 | $312.24 | -$1.69 | 32% 524-1097 (1621) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $92.75 | $91.76 | -$0.99 | 46% 433-503 (936) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $57.97 | $66.02 | +$8.05 | 51% 2511-2408 (4919) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $13.91 | $14.49 | +$0.58 | 41% 534-766 (1300) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $2.82 | $2.95 | +$0.13 | 47% 158-181 (339) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.32 | $0.37 | +$0.05 | 32% 530-1111 (1641) |
Invested
$1,285.5
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$18.08
Record
33%
544-1120 (1664)
Invested
$385.86
Value
$383.79
PnL
-$2.07
Record
33%
546-1093 (1639)
Invested
$313.93
Value
$312.24
PnL
-$1.69
Record
32%
524-1097 (1621)
Invested
$92.75
Value
$91.76
PnL
-$0.99
Record
46%
433-503 (936)
Invested
$57.97
Value
$66.02
PnL
+$8.05
Record
51%
2511-2408 (4919)
Invested
$13.91
Value
$14.49
PnL
+$0.58
Record
41%
534-766 (1300)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.13
Record
47%
158-181 (339)
Invested
$0.32
Value
$0.37
PnL
+$0.05
Record
32%
530-1111 (1641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.