Will AD Cali win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 60¢ · $425 held · ended Nov 14

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$425.2

Combined PnL

-$4.37

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$88.68

Total Shares222

Combined PnL-$6.97

Yes3 traders

Total Value$24.79

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$2.6

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$254.92	$311.74	+$56.81	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.1¢	$116.73	$182.46	+$65.73
└ No leg	Noavg 31.5¢	$138.19	$129.27	-$8.92
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 31¢	$38.75	$36.88	-$1.88	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 38.3¢	$28.55	$34.43	+$5.88	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$9.3	$9.75	+$0.45	42% 1051-1465 (2516)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 59¢	$16.74	$9.08	-$7.66	53% 2221-2002 (4223)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$6.36	$8.46	+$2.1	35% 394-728 (1122)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$6.53	$6.58	+$0.05	63% 222-133 (355)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 38¢	$6.05	$4.7	-$1.35	49% 1212-1274 (2486)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 59¢	$3.91	$2.12	-$1.79	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.47	-$0.18	48% 2212-2378 (4590)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$254.92

Value

$311.74

PnL

+$56.81

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Both legs:

Yes$116.7345.1¢+$65.73

No$138.1931.5¢-$8.92

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$38.75

Value

$36.88

PnL

-$1.88

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$28.55

Value

$34.43

PnL

+$5.88

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

42%

1051-1465 (2516)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$16.74

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$7.66

Record

53%

2221-2002 (4223)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.36

Value

$8.46

PnL

+$2.1

Record

35%

394-728 (1122)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.53

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$0.05

Record

63%

222-133 (355)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$6.05

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$1.35

Record

49%

1212-1274 (2486)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$3.91

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$1.79

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.