FC Twente vs. Páfos FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 74¢ · $190 held · ends Nov 5

Over74¢Under26¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$189.91

Combined PnL

-$2.22

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 74¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$126.19

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$0.94

Under8 traders

Total Value$63.69

Total Shares286

Combined PnL-$3.15

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 72.7¢	$102.29	$104.02	+$1.74	51% 25751-24453 (50204)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 21.7¢	$21.73	$21.98	+$0.25	52% 1376-1291 (2667)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 26.8¢	$17.57	$14.41	-$3.15	53% 1423-1266 (2689)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 22.9¢	$13.94	$13.42	-$0.52	50% 28428-28335 (56763)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 78.1¢	$11.72	$11.09	-$0.62	55% 9738-8127 (17865)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 71.3¢	$11.25	$11.08	-$0.18	50% 25823-25522 (51345)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 21.8¢	$4.15	$4.18	+$0.22	50% 1324-1301 (2625)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 22.8¢	$3.41	$3.91	+$0.49	51% 1379-1343 (2722)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$2.88	$2.6	-$0.27	53% 2578-2255 (4833)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$2.08	$1.83	-$0.25	53% 16808-14936 (31744)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 24.5¢	$1.27	$1.35	+$0.08	51% 37668-36894 (74562)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$102.29

Value

$104.02

PnL

+$1.74

Record

51%

25751-24453 (50204)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.73

Value

$21.98

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

1376-1291 (2667)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.57

Value

$14.41

PnL

-$3.15

Record

53%

1423-1266 (2689)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.94

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

28428-28335 (56763)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$11.72

Value

$11.09

PnL

-$0.62

Record

55%

9738-8127 (17865)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.08

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

25823-25522 (51345)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

1324-1301 (2625)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$0.49

Record

51%

1379-1343 (2722)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

2578-2255 (4833)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

16808-14936 (31744)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

37668-36894 (74562)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.