FC Thun vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 57¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$195.25
-$3.42
58.1¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 58¢ | $142.02 | $133.68 | -$1.04 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 58.8¢ | $22.1 | $21.78 | -$0.32 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 43.6¢ | $18.74 | $17.85 | -$0.9 | 53% 1413-1258 (2671) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.2¢ | $10.73 | $10.19 | -$0.54 | 52% 1365-1285 (2650) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.2¢ | $7.08 | $6.72 | -$0.36 | 50% 1313-1295 (2608) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.2¢ | $5.31 | $5.04 | -$0.27 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$142.02
Value
$133.68
PnL
-$1.04
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
Invested
$22.1
Value
$21.78
PnL
-$0.32
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
Invested
$18.74
Value
$17.85
PnL
-$0.9
Record
53%
1413-1258 (2671)
Invested
$10.73
Value
$10.19
PnL
-$0.54
Record
52%
1365-1285 (2650)
Invested
$7.08
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$0.36
Record
50%
1313-1295 (2608)
Invested
$5.31
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.27
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.