Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-11-05?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 30¢ · $719 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$719
-$21.12
32.5¢ → 29.5¢
-9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $1.2K | $389.67 | -$6.44 | 51% 25682-24404 (50086) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 31.6¢ | $139.37 | $129.98 | -$9.39 | 64% 9850-5517 (15367) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.6¢ | $87.1 | $89.72 | +$2.62 | 64% 9882-5579 (15461) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $79.24 | $72.05 | -$7.2 | 50% 25798-25487 (51285) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 32.1¢ | $51.59 | $16.77 | +$0.18 | 48% 61012-65825 (126837) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 31.7¢ | $19.95 | $16.57 | -$0.7 | 58% 46645-33616 (80261) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $13.06 | $4.24 | -$0.2 | 53% 16777-14914 (31691) |
Invested
$1,199
Value
$389.67
PnL
-$6.44
Record
51%
25682-24404 (50086)
Invested
$139.37
Value
$129.98
PnL
-$9.39
Record
64%
9850-5517 (15367)
Invested
$87.1
Value
$89.72
PnL
+$2.62
Record
64%
9882-5579 (15461)
Invested
$79.24
Value
$72.05
PnL
-$7.2
Record
50%
25798-25487 (51285)
Invested
$51.59
Value
$16.77
PnL
+$0.18
Record
48%
61012-65825 (126837)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.95
Value
$16.57
PnL
-$0.7
Record
58%
46645-33616 (80261)
Invested
$13.06
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
16777-14914 (31691)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.