FC Midtjylland vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5

3 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 56¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 5

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.5K

Combined PnL

-$41.82

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 18 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares31,242

Combined PnL+$328.62

Over15 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares26,108

Combined PnL-$370.44

Under — 17%Over — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 54.4¢	$16.8K	$17.2K	+$329.3	49% 197-201 (398)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 47.2¢	$4.5K	$4.2K	-$259.56	53% 1413-1258 (2671)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$30.9	49% 14704-15378 (30082)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 45.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$17.23	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$47.5	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$1.0K	$969.08	-$44.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$355.04	$351.87	-$3.17
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$846.77	$814.04	-$32.73	51% 1371-1334 (2705)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 46¢	$590.09	$570.85	-$19.24	46% 5200-6047 (11247)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$570.58	$548.89	-$21.69	50% 21156-21414 (42570)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 47.1¢	$416.1	$393.16	-$22.94	50% 1313-1295 (2608)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$291.52	$287.17	-$4.35	56% 7908-6321 (14229)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$445.65	$267	-$12.91	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 46¢	$246.62	$159.39	-$6.83	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$161.84	$159.07	-$2.76	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 44.2¢	$102.3	$102.97	+$0.67	47% 11685-13388 (25073)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 55¢	$86.38	$86.38	+$0.79	50% 28410-28315 (56725)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 56¢	$82.2	$80.73	-$1.47	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$25.76	$25.48	-$0.28	55% 9735-8124 (17859)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$18.98	$18	-$0.99	49% 6287-6447 (12734)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.4	$8.9	-$0.5	50% 1380-1390 (2770)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$16,841.19

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$329.3

Record

49%

197-201 (398)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$4,481.89

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$259.56

Record

53%

1413-1258 (2671)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$2,904.6

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$30.9

Record

49%

14704-15378 (30082)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,346.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$17.23

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,368.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$47.5

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

Both legs:

Over$1,013.4146.5¢-$44.33

Under$355.0456¢-$3.17

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$846.77

Value

$814.04

PnL

-$32.73

Record

51%

1371-1334 (2705)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$590.09

Value

$570.85

PnL

-$19.24

Record

46%

5200-6047 (11247)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$570.58

Value

$548.89

PnL

-$21.69

Record

50%

21156-21414 (42570)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$416.1

Value

$393.16

PnL

-$22.94

Record

50%

1313-1295 (2608)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$291.52

Value

$287.17

PnL

-$4.35

Record

56%

7908-6321 (14229)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$445.65

Value

$267

PnL

-$12.91

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$246.62

Value

$159.39

PnL

-$6.83

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$161.84

Value

$159.07

PnL

-$2.76

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$102.3

Value

$102.97

PnL

+$0.67

Record

47%

11685-13388 (25073)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$86.38

Value

$86.38

PnL

+$0.79

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$82.2

Value

$80.73

PnL

-$1.47

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.76

Value

$25.48

PnL

-$0.28

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.98

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.99

Record

49%

6287-6447 (12734)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.4

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

1380-1390 (2770)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 18 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.