Will FK Kauno Žalgiris win on 2026-11-05?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$58.06

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,259

Combined PnL+$60.08

Yes5 traders

Total Value$95.01

Total Shares1,939

Combined PnL-$2.02

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	Noavg 94.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$6.15	53% 16808-14936 (31744)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 94.4¢	$1.1K	$664.96	+$42.23	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 94.6¢	$661.4	$664.89	+$3.5	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
NM NM-P	Noavg 94.7¢	$559.55	$561.74	+$2.19	64% 9927-5529 (15456)
GC GC-P	Noavg 94.7¢	$557.42	$559.63	+$2.21	64% 9969-5597 (15566)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$442.09	$499	+$56.91	51% 37671-36895 (74566)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.2¢	$389.51	$393.34	+$3.83
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.4¢	$52.58	$105.66	+$53.08
LI Limousin	Noavg 99.4¢	$352.9	$337.6	-$15.29	53% 1430-1268 (2698)
RN1	Noavg 94.4¢	$228.35	$248.77	+$20.42	53% 61372-53688 (115060)
VE Venusian	Noavg 96.2¢	$248.8	$246.07	-$2.73	51% 1384-1348 (2732)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 95.3¢	$239.09	$240.32	+$1.23	52% 14498-13182 (27680)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.6¢	$229.88	$223.91	-$5.97	50% 1329-1304 (2633)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 94.7¢	$414.23	$118.49	+$6.65	54% 9740-8132 (17872)
FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$80.86	$76.2	-$4.66	50% 545-553 (1098)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$47.88	$47.48	-$0.4	47% 11713-13434 (25147)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$28.87	$28.53	-$0.34	52% 1380-1295 (2675)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.91	$6.25	+$3.34	46% 1540-1814 (3354)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$4.88	$5.17	+$0.29	50% 25827-25531 (51358)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$4.77	$5	+$0.23	34% 19186-36821 (56007)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$6.18	$4.95	-$1.23	61% 14367-9292 (23659)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$2.2	$2.45	+$0.25	51% 6350-6138 (12488)

Cannae

Invested

$2,137.71

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$6.15

Record

53%

16808-14936 (31744)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,105.01

Value

$664.96

PnL

+$42.23

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$661.4

Value

$664.89

PnL

+$3.5

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

NM-P

Invested

$559.55

Value

$561.74

PnL

+$2.19

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

GC-P

Invested

$557.42

Value

$559.63

PnL

+$2.21

Record

64%

9969-5597 (15566)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$442.09

Value

$499

PnL

+$56.91

Record

51%

37671-36895 (74566)

Both legs:

No$389.5194.2¢+$3.83

Yes$52.582.4¢+$53.08

Limousin

Invested

$352.9

Value

$337.6

PnL

-$15.29

Record

53%

1430-1268 (2698)

RN1

Invested

$228.35

Value

$248.77

PnL

+$20.42

Record

53%

61372-53688 (115060)

Venusian

Invested

$248.8

Value

$246.07

PnL

-$2.73

Record

51%

1384-1348 (2732)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$239.09

Value

$240.32

PnL

+$1.23

Record

52%

14498-13182 (27680)

MadridTime

Invested

$229.88

Value

$223.91

PnL

-$5.97

Record

50%

1329-1304 (2633)

Pan9X

Invested

$414.23

Value

$118.49

PnL

+$6.65

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.86

Value

$76.2

PnL

-$4.66

Record

50%

545-553 (1098)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$47.88

Value

$47.48

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

11713-13434 (25147)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$28.87

Value

$28.53

PnL

-$0.34

Record

52%

1380-1295 (2675)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.91

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$3.34

Record

46%

1540-1814 (3354)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

25827-25531 (51358)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

PnL

+$0.23

Record

34%

19186-36821 (56007)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.18

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$1.23

Record

61%

14367-9292 (23659)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

6350-6138 (12488)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.