Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 13 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-11-05?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 25¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 5

Yes75¢No25¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 87%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$63.52

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 25¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,568

Combined PnL+$7.84

No13 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares8,696

Combined PnL-$71.36

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FaroeseNationalist	Yesavg 76¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.78	50% 545-553 (1098)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 24.3¢	$745.07	$731.19	-$16.09	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
└ No leg	Noavg 24.3¢	$582.04	$562.64	-$19.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$163.04	$168.54	+$3.3
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 24¢	$527.3	$550.21	+$22.91	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 24.9¢	$483.18	$455.43	-$27.75	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 25.8¢	$483.51	$450.15	-$33.36	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Yesavg 75.9¢	$412.44	$402.64	+$0.02	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.9¢	$303.56	$306	+$2.13
└ No leg	Noavg 24.2¢	$99.46	$96.64	-$2.11
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 23.9¢	$365.79	$362.49	-$3.3	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 29¢	$122.05	$100.98	-$21.07	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 24.6¢	$95.71	$93.77	-$1.94	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$74.82	$73.26	-$1.56	49% 14708-15378 (30086)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$42	$40.32	-$1.68	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 27.3¢	$20.69	$18.2	-$2.49	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 75.9¢	$10.12	$10.13	+$0.07	44% 80-103 (183)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Noavg 24.4¢	$14.73	$9.72	-$0.06	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$9.16	$9.35	+$0.19	52% 14487-13178 (27665)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$5.38	$5.14	-$0.23	46% 1536-1808 (3344)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$5.87	$4.86	-$1.01	51% 1376-1340 (2716)

FaroeseNationalist

Yes

Invested

$1,181.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.78

Record

50%

545-553 (1098)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$745.07

Value

$731.19

PnL

-$16.09

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

Both legs:

No$582.0424.3¢-$19.4

Yes$163.0474¢+$3.3

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$527.3

Value

$550.21

PnL

+$22.91

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$483.18

Value

$455.43

PnL

-$27.75

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$483.51

Value

$450.15

PnL

-$33.36

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$412.44

Value

$402.64

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

Both legs:

Yes$303.5675.9¢+$2.13

No$99.4624.2¢-$2.11

CannaeCTR

Invested

$365.79

Value

$362.49

PnL

-$3.3

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$122.05

Value

$100.98

PnL

-$21.07

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$95.71

Value

$93.77

PnL

-$1.94

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$74.82

Value

$73.26

PnL

-$1.56

Record

49%

14708-15378 (30086)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$40.32

PnL

-$1.68

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$20.69

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$2.49

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.12

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

44%

80-103 (183)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Invested

$14.73

Value

$9.72

PnL

-$0.06

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$9.16

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0.19

Record

52%

14487-13178 (27665)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$0.23

Record

46%

1536-1808 (3344)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$5.87

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$1.01

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.