Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will KAA Gent win on 2026-11-05?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 41¢ · $742 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$741.69
$5.14
40.1¢ → 40.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $266.77 | $270.1 | +$3.33 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 40¢ | $203.66 | $203.66 | +$0 | 49% 14392-15079 (29471) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 39.8¢ | $165.15 | $165.88 | +$0.74 | 53% 16539-14712 (31251) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $66.64 | $71.37 | +$1.8 | 50% 20843-21072 (41915) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $23.65 | $22 | -$0.82 | 48% 7290-7774 (15064) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 39.6¢ | $8.59 | $8.68 | +$0.08 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
Invested
$266.77
Value
$270.1
PnL
+$3.33
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
Invested
$203.66
Value
$203.66
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
14392-15079 (29471)
Invested
$165.15
Value
$165.88
PnL
+$0.74
Record
53%
16539-14712 (31251)
Invested
$66.64
Value
$71.37
PnL
+$1.8
Record
50%
20843-21072 (41915)
Invested
$23.65
Value
$22
PnL
-$0.82
Record
48%
7290-7774 (15064)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.59
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.