FC København vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 85¢ · $257 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$257.07
$0.55
84.3¢ → 84.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 84¢ | $157 | $133.45 | +$1.57 | 50% 28303-28194 (56497) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 85¢ | $80.24 | $68.2 | +$0 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 16¢ | $150 | $22.5 | -$1.5 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 15¢ | $123.55 | $18.53 | +$0 | 58% 46317-33437 (79754) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $13.9 | $14.38 | +$0.48 | 54% 2563-2222 (4785) |
Invested
$157
Value
$133.45
PnL
+$1.57
Record
50%
28303-28194 (56497)
Invested
$80.24
Value
$68.2
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$150
Value
$22.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$123.55
Value
$18.53
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
46317-33437 (79754)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$13.9
Value
$14.38
PnL
+$0.48
Record
54%
2563-2222 (4785)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.