Will FC København win on 2026-11-05?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 84¢ · $636 held · ends Nov 5

Yes84¢No16¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$636.31

Combined PnL

-$0.88

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 83.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$544.51

Total Shares656

Combined PnL-$4.67

No2 traders

Total Value$91.8

Total Shares501

Combined PnL+$3.78

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Yesavg 83¢	$239.75	$184.63	-$0.79	64% 9816-5452 (15268)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 83.7¢	$171.25	$168.79	-$2.47	51% 25463-24164 (49627)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 83¢	$115.76	$95.5	-$0.58	64% 9860-5525 (15385)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 17¢	$386	$67.55	+$1.93	49% 6263-6422 (12685)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$80.87	$66.72	-$0.4	53% 16611-14768 (31379)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 83.7¢	$29.3	$28.87	-$0.42	50% 21060-21316 (42376)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 16.4¢	$352.01	$24.25	+$1.85	48% 60543-65164 (125707)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$239.75

Value

$184.63

PnL

-$0.79

Record

64%

9816-5452 (15268)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$171.25

Value

$168.79

PnL

-$2.47

Record

51%

25463-24164 (49627)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$115.76

Value

$95.5

PnL

-$0.58

Record

64%

9860-5525 (15385)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$386

Value

$67.55

PnL

+$1.93

Record

49%

6263-6422 (12685)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.87

Value

$66.72

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

16611-14768 (31379)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.3

Value

$28.87

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

21060-21316 (42376)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$352.01

Value

$24.25

PnL

+$1.85

Record

48%

60543-65164 (125707)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.