Getafe CF vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 72¢ · $530 held · ends Nov 5

Over28¢Under72¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$530.38

Combined PnL

-$0.24

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 71.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$502.36

Total Shares701

Combined PnL+$0.77

Over4 traders

Total Value$28.01

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$1.01

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 72¢	$295.69	$293.63	-$2.05	56% 7911-6321 (14232)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 73¢	$200.7	$197.93	+$2.75	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$17.91	$17.28	-$0.63	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 72¢	$10.8	$10.8	+$0.08	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$5.42	$5.23	-$0.19	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$5.32	$5.13	-$0.19	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$0.37	$0.37	-$0	51% 37665-36890 (74555)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$295.69

Value

$293.63

PnL

-$2.05

Record

56%

7911-6321 (14232)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$200.7

Value

$197.93

PnL

+$2.75

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.91

Value

$17.28

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

37665-36890 (74555)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.