Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5)

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Getafe CF (33%) · Getafe CF at 66¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 5

Brighton & Hove Albion FC35¢Getafe CF65¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Getafe CF

Consensus Traders

Getafe CF 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$77.02

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 65.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGetafe CF at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Getafe CF

5 of 15 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Brighton & Hove Albion FC35%

Getafe CF66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Getafe CF5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,935

Combined PnL+$60.7

Brighton & Hove Albion FC10 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,575

Combined PnL+$16.32

Getafe CF — 33%Brighton & Hove Albion FC — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Getafe CFavg 64¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$18.22	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
VeryLucky888	Getafe CFavg 63.9¢	$1.0K	$828.03	+$17.46	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
LI LimousinCTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36.4¢	$624.6	$626.79	+$2.18	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36¢	$539.32	$539.96	-$5.97	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
0xheavy888	Getafe CFavg 63¢	$504	$524	+$20	56% 7911-6321 (14232)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 35¢	$430.28	$430.56	+$0.28	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
└ Brighton & Hove Albion FC leg	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 35¢	$299.25	$294.97	-$4.27
└ Getafe CF leg	Getafe CFavg 63.3¢	$131.03	$135.59	+$4.56
VE VenusianCTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36.2¢	$371.34	$374.67	+$3.33	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36.2¢	$251.53	$253.73	+$2.2	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Getafe CFavg 63.2¢	$277.62	$240.31	+$1.83	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
└ Getafe CF leg	Getafe CFavg 63.2¢	$158.58	$164.41	+$5.78
└ Brighton & Hove Albion FC leg	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36.2¢	$79.7	$75.9	-$3.95
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 37¢	$222	$225	+$3	51% 1899-1850 (3749)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Getafe CFavg 65.2¢	$166.14	$163.76	+$0.81	50% 21164-21421 (42585)
└ Getafe CF leg	Getafe CFavg 65.2¢	$125.93	$123.7	+$0.97
└ Brighton & Hove Albion FC leg	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36.1¢	$40.22	$40.06	-$0.15
SE sentrioCTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 35.1¢	$144.36	$147.91	+$3.55	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 34.1¢	$129.22	$136.4	+$9.47	53% 2573-2253 (4826)
CA Cannae	Getafe CFavg 62.2¢	$109.08	$113.06	+$3.98	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36.6¢	$89.76	$89.57	-$0.19	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 37.2¢	$41.09	$39.82	-$1.27	49% 6288-6447 (12735)
PA Pan9X<$100	Getafe CFavg 62.8¢	$32.64	$24.23	+$1.03	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Brighton & Hove Albion FCavg 36.1¢	$1.41	$1.42	+$0.01	48% 7398-7928 (15326)

Flaznorp

Getafe CF

Invested

$1,150.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.22

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

VeryLucky888

Getafe CF

Invested

$1,019.57

Value

$828.03

PnL

+$17.46

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

LimousinCTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$624.6

Value

$626.79

PnL

+$2.18

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$539.32

Value

$539.96

PnL

-$5.97

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

0xheavy888

Getafe CF

Invested

$504

Value

$524

PnL

+$20

Record

56%

7911-6321 (14232)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$430.28

Value

$430.56

PnL

+$0.28

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

Both legs:

Brighton & Hove Albion FC$299.2535¢-$4.27

Getafe CF$131.0363.3¢+$4.56

VenusianCTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$371.34

Value

$374.67

PnL

+$3.33

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

MadridTimeCTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$251.53

Value

$253.73

PnL

+$2.2

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$277.62

Value

$240.31

PnL

+$1.83

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

Both legs:

Getafe CF$158.5863.2¢+$5.78

Brighton & Hove Albion FC$79.736.2¢-$3.95

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$222

Value

$225

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

1899-1850 (3749)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$166.14

Value

$163.76

PnL

+$0.81

Record

50%

21164-21421 (42585)

Both legs:

Getafe CF$125.9365.2¢+$0.97

Brighton & Hove Albion FC$40.2236.1¢-$0.15

sentrioCTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$144.36

Value

$147.91

PnL

+$3.55

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$129.22

Value

$136.4

PnL

+$9.47

Record

53%

2573-2253 (4826)

Cannae

Getafe CF

Invested

$109.08

Value

$113.06

PnL

+$3.98

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$89.76

Value

$89.57

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$41.09

Value

$39.82

PnL

-$1.27

Record

49%

6288-6447 (12735)

Pan9X<$100

Getafe CF

Invested

$32.64

Value

$24.23

PnL

+$1.03

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

OddstormCTR<$100

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

7398-7928 (15326)

Research grade

NeutralGetafe CF at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Getafe CF

5 of 15 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Getafe CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.