Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-11-05?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (93%) · Yes at 60¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 5

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 93%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

-$350.66

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 59.5¢

-3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares29,696

Combined PnL-$346.8

No1 trader

Total Value$65.49

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$3.86

Yes — 93%No — 7%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 61.1¢	$8.8K	$8.6K	-$171.92	51% 25691-24411 (50102)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 61.4¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$75.85	50% 28405-28302 (56707)
FO forecastication4	Yesavg 61.8¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$88.28	50% 1380-1390 (2770)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$7.49	50% 25799-25489 (51288)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 60.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$4.91	53% 16795-14918 (31713)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 39.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$23.77	50% 21143-21403 (42546)
└ No leg	Noavg 39.2¢	$835.33	$820.87	-$14.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.2¢	$350.85	$341.53	-$9.32
NM NM-P	Yesavg 62.5¢	$795.58	$801.58	+$6	64% 9911-5524 (15435)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 62.5¢	$716.77	$722.77	+$6	64% 9954-5592 (15546)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 61.7¢	$305.43	$299.48	-$5.95	48% 61013-65836 (126849)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 61.7¢	$170.36	$166.98	-$3.38	47% 11679-13371 (25050)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 39.2¢	$69.35	$65.49	-$3.86	50% 1305-1289 (2594)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$39.5	$39.18	-$0.32	64% 1956-1089 (3045)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$34.9	$17.85	-$1.33	58% 46650-33619 (80269)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$12	$12.1	+$0.1	49% 4473-4671 (9144)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Yesavg 60.2¢	$9.03	$9.38	+$0.53	54% 2569-2229 (4798)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$8,818.14

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$171.92

Record

51%

25691-24411 (50102)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,047.34

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$75.85

Record

50%

28405-28302 (56707)

forecastication4

Yes

Invested

$2,332.03

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$88.28

Record

50%

1380-1390 (2770)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$1,541.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$7.49

Record

50%

25799-25489 (51288)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$1,312.13

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$4.91

Record

53%

16795-14918 (31713)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$1,186.18

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$23.77

Record

50%

21143-21403 (42546)

Both legs:

No$835.3339.2¢-$14.46

Yes$350.8563.2¢-$9.32

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$795.58

Value

$801.58

PnL

+$6

Record

64%

9911-5524 (15435)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$716.77

Value

$722.77

PnL

+$6

Record

64%

9954-5592 (15546)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$305.43

Value

$299.48

PnL

-$5.95

Record

48%

61013-65836 (126849)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$170.36

Value

$166.98

PnL

-$3.38

Record

47%

11679-13371 (25050)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$69.35

Value

$65.49

PnL

-$3.86

Record

50%

1305-1289 (2594)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.5

Value

$39.18

PnL

-$0.32

Record

64%

1956-1089 (3045)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.9

Value

$17.85

PnL

-$1.33

Record

58%

46650-33619 (80269)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

4473-4671 (9144)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.03

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$0.53

Record

54%

2569-2229 (4798)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.