Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will SC Braga win on 2026-11-05?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$22.25

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 47.5¢

-8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$587.81

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL-$0.84

No10 traders

Total Value$854.67

Total Shares1,785

Combined PnL-$21.41

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forgotmydinner	Yesavg 49.1¢	$491.26	$489.99	-$5	17% 102-504 (606)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 52.2¢	$448.49	$412.02	+$4.29	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 50¢	$143.35	$136.13	-$7.22	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$97.28	$91.55	-$5.72	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 50.2¢	$90.15	$87.91	+$4.49	50% 28405-28303 (56708)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$80.27	$72.36	-$7.91	50% 1309-1291 (2600)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 47.7¢	$65.48	$65.19	-$0.28	64% 9962-5592 (15554)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$25.5	$24	-$1.5	48% 61030-65863 (126893)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$23.83	$21.48	-$2.35	51% 1368-1329 (2697)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 52.2¢	$19.25	$17.68	-$0.92	50% 21147-21407 (42554)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 54.2¢	$10.24	$9.91	-$0.33	44% 80-103 (183)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.5	-$0.1	49% 4474-4672 (9146)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$17.38	$4.76	+$0.3	58% 46658-33622 (80280)

forgotmydinner

Yes

Invested

$491.26

Value

$489.99

PnL

-$5

Record

17%

102-504 (606)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$448.49

Value

$412.02

PnL

+$4.29

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$143.35

Value

$136.13

PnL

-$7.22

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$97.28

Value

$91.55

PnL

-$5.72

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.15

Value

$87.91

PnL

+$4.49

Record

50%

28405-28303 (56708)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$80.27

Value

$72.36

PnL

-$7.91

Record

50%

1309-1291 (2600)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$65.48

Value

$65.19

PnL

-$0.28

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$24

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

61030-65863 (126893)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$23.83

Value

$21.48

PnL

-$2.35

Record

51%

1368-1329 (2697)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$19.25

Value

$17.68

PnL

-$0.92

Record

50%

21147-21407 (42554)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.24

Value

$9.91

PnL

-$0.33

Record

44%

80-103 (183)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

4474-4672 (9146)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$17.38

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.