Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-11-12?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 48¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
2 arb excluded
$4.0K
$280.55
43¢ → 48¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 62.9¢ | $2.8K | $2.2K | -$265.75 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 62.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$47.21 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45.6¢ | $1.1K | $807.71 | -$312.96 | |
 12monkeysCTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $587.24 | $881.41 | +$294.17 | 37% 10-17 (27) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 38.7¢ | $1.2K | $844.04 | -$308.3 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38.7¢ | $880.9 | $511.72 | -$369.18 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.3¢ | $271.44 | $332.32 | +$60.88 | |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $34.73 | $21.16 | -$13.57 | 22% 175-633 (808) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $10 | $9.84 | -$0.16 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
MO mouzsynapse<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $6.69 | $6.78 | +$0.1 | 41% 65-92 (157) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $6.1 | $6.1 | +$0 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $0.61 | $0.63 | +$0.02 | 56% 4480-3454 (7934) |
Invested
$2,801.36
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$265.75
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Both legs:
12monkeysCTRInvested
$587.24
Value
$881.41
PnL
+$294.17
Record
37%
10-17 (27)
Invested
$1,152.35
Value
$844.04
PnL
-$308.3
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Both legs:
tradecraft<$100Invested
$34.73
Value
$21.16
PnL
-$13.57
Record
22%
175-633 (808)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.84
PnL
-$0.16
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$6.69
Value
$6.78
PnL
+$0.1
Record
41%
65-92 (157)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$6.1
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$0.02
Record
56%
4480-3454 (7934)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.