Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
RB Leipzig vs. Mlada Boleslav: O/U 7.5
Resolved Over. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
5
Under 20%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$867
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 53.3¢ | $1.4K | $742.36 | -$640.29 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.3¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46.1¢ | $341.98 | $742.36 | +$400.38 | |
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8CTR | Underavg 66.7¢ | $1.1K | — | -$907.14 | — 5-8 (13) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Overavg 99¢ | $565 | $570.71 | +$5.71 | 99% 235-3 (238) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $13.73 | $29.85 | +$16.12 | 32% 294-619 (913) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $15.34 | $23.05 | +$12.72 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $4.76 | $10.35 | +$5.59 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
Invested
$1,382.65
Value
$742.36
PnL
-$640.29
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,116.25
Value
—
PnL
-$907.14
Record
—
5-8 (13)
Invested
$565
Value
$570.71
PnL
+$5.71
Record
99%
235-3 (238)
Invested
$13.73
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$16.12
Record
32%
294-619 (913)
Invested
$15.34
Value
$23.05
PnL
+$12.72
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$10.35
PnL
+$5.59
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8
CTRUnder — $0
0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105
Over — $570.71
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Over — $29.85
ferdinand2
Over — $23.05
suntori
Over — $10.35