Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Over — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Over
RB Leipzig vs. Mlada Boleslav: O/U 4.5
Resolved Over. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$357.43
-$4.53
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 57.7¢ | $796.93 | $311.92 | -$485.01 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 57.7¢ | $566.73 | — | -$566.73 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 73.8¢ | $230.21 | $311.92 | +$81.72 | |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $30.8 | $40 | +$9.2 | 78% 718-201 (919) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 60.6¢ | $24.16 | — | -$22.76 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $2.09 | $5.5 | +$3.41 | 15% 29-166 (195) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 57.3¢ | $146.38 | — | +$7.63 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $1.04 | $0.01 | +$1.09 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $570 | — | +$0 | 83% 93-19 (112) |
Invested
$796.93
Value
$311.92
PnL
-$485.01
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$9.2
Record
78%
718-201 (919)
Invested
$24.16
Value
—
PnL
-$22.76
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$3.41
Record
15%
29-166 (195)
Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$146.38
Value
—
PnL
+$7.63
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$1.09
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
Invested
$570
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
83%
93-19 (112)