Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-11-12?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 13¢ · $338 held · ends Nov 12

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$337.94

Combined PnL

$16.16

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$114.31

Total Shares141

Combined PnL+$4.29

No9 traders

Total Value$43.32

Total Shares347

Combined PnL+$11.86

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 86.1¢	$177.08	$180.3	+$3.22	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 86.1¢	$133.39	$135.61	+$2.22
└ No leg	Noavg 12.2¢	$43.69	$44.69	+$1
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 87.2¢	$57.13	$57.35	+$0.22	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$36.24	$36.96	+$0.72	41% 525-744 (1269)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$16	$25	+$9	52% 718-671 (1389)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$12.34	$17.59	+$5.25	43% 2574-3395 (5969)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$8.8	$10	+$1.2	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$4.31	$2.42	-$1.89	50% 1181-1203 (2384)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.62	$2.02	+$0.4	44% 501-627 (1128)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.61	$2.01	+$0.4	49% 471-500 (971)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.6	$2	+$0.4	63% 451-268 (719)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.7	$0.88	+$0.18	63% 445-264 (709)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.52	$0.65	+$0.13	58% 456-326 (782)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.51	$0.64	+$0.13	49% 488-517 (1005)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.1	$0.13	+$0.03	47% 521-590 (1111)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$177.08

Value

$180.3

PnL

+$3.22

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

Both legs:

Yes$133.3986.1¢+$2.22

No$43.6912.2¢+$1

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.13

Value

$57.35

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.24

Value

$36.96

PnL

+$0.72

Record

41%

525-744 (1269)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$25

PnL

+$9

Record

52%

718-671 (1389)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.34

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$5.25

Record

43%

2574-3395 (5969)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.31

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$1.89

Record

50%

1181-1203 (2384)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.4

Record

44%

501-627 (1128)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.61

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

471-500 (971)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

63%

451-268 (719)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.18

Record

63%

445-264 (709)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

456-326 (782)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

488-517 (1005)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

521-590 (1111)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.