Will Mlada Boleslav win on 2026-11-12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$29.66

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 94.4¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,694

Combined PnL+$109.5

Yes2 traders

Total Value$26.93

Total Shares600

Combined PnL-$79.84

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 85¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$109.43	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$55.07	$56.57	+$1.5	41% 533-763 (1296)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 90¢	$45	$44.75	-$0.25	78% 713-201 (914)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97¢	$43.73	$42.38	-$1.35	58% 468-339 (807)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96¢	$17.62	$17.34	-$0.28	47% 518-588 (1106)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$67.64	$16.27	-$51.37	32% 284-608 (892)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$39.13	$10.66	-$28.47	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$24.9	$6.94	+$0.44	50% 1206-1230 (2436)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,411.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$109.43

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$55.07

Value

$56.57

PnL

+$1.5

Record

41%

533-763 (1296)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$44.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

78%

713-201 (914)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$43.73

Value

$42.38

PnL

-$1.35

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$17.62

Value

$17.34

PnL

-$0.28

Record

47%

518-588 (1106)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.64

Value

$16.27

PnL

-$51.37

Record

32%

284-608 (892)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.13

Value

$10.66

PnL

-$28.47

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$24.9

Value

$6.94

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

1206-1230 (2436)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.