Will PAOK win on 2026-11-14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$7.35

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 99.1¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,471

Combined PnL+$10.31

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.75

Total Shares297

Combined PnL-$2.96

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dip.	Noavg 98.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$8.47	— 5-0 (5)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$60.78	$61.17	+$0.39	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$44.44	$44.74	+$0.29	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$44.4	$44.7	+$0.29	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$40.54	$40.81	+$0.27	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$29.73	$29.92	+$0.2	58% 703-515 (1218)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$29.7	$29.89	+$0.2	51% 719-703 (1422)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$29.65	$29.84	+$0.2	49% 785-823 (1608)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$5.66	$4.53	-$1.13	14% 82-514 (596)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$56.15	$0.22	-$1.83	39% 3636-5765 (9401)

dip.

Invested

$2,148.36

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$8.47

Record

—

5-0 (5)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$60.78

Value

$61.17

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$44.44

Value

$44.74

PnL

+$0.29

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$44.4

Value

$44.7

PnL

+$0.29

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$40.54

Value

$40.81

PnL

+$0.27

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$29.73

Value

$29.92

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.89

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$29.65

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$1.13

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.15

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.83

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.