Will Mlada Boleslav win on 2026-11-13?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.3K
-$29.37
98.4¢ → 98.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QE qetuoa | Noavg 98.7¢ | $992.49 | $967.52 | -$24.96 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 97.9¢ | $197.96 | $194.45 | -$3.51 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $88.73 | $88.11 | -$0.62 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $7.92 | $7.78 | -$0.14 | 38% 173-282 (455) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $7.88 | $7.74 | -$0.14 | 31% 190-424 (614) |
Invested
$992.49
Value
$967.52
PnL
-$24.96
Record
—
Invested
$197.96
Value
$194.45
PnL
-$3.51
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$88.73
Value
$88.11
PnL
-$0.62
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.78
PnL
-$0.14
Record
38%
173-282 (455)
Invested
$7.88
Value
$7.74
PnL
-$0.14
Record
31%
190-424 (614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.