Will Vysocina Jihlava win on 2026-11-13?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.2K
$14.75
98.6¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QE qetuoa | Noavg 98.7¢ | $995.05 | $1.0K | +$12.25 | — |
 itoney17 | Noavg 98¢ | $123.73 | $126.12 | +$2.4 | — |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.23 | $18.23 | +$0 | 32% 205-428 (633) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $10 | $10.1 | +$0.1 | 41% 3022-4424 (7446) |
Invested
$995.05
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$12.25
Record
—
itoney17Invested
$123.73
Value
$126.12
PnL
+$2.4
Record
—
Invested
$18.23
Value
$18.23
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
205-428 (633)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
41%
3022-4424 (7446)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.