Hannover 96 vs. TSV Havelse: O/U 4.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,909

Combined PnL+$401.81

Under3 traders

Total Value$81.88

Total Shares4,862

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fxwd12345	Overavg 91¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$198.87	76% 22-7 (29)
RN1	Overavg 49¢	$446.23	$642.35	+$196.12	56% 4480-3454 (7934)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 40.1¢	$913.71	$58.36	-$504.71	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.6¢	$105.6	$19.55	-$86.04	52% 754-704 (1458)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 42.3¢	$12.35	$18.13	+$9.12	47% 1541-1714 (3255)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 91¢	$9.1	$10	+$0.9	63% 27-16 (43)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 95¢	$9.31	$9.8	+$0.49	50% 1226-1249 (2475)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 93¢	$8.7	$5.03	-$3.67	41% 543-780 (1323)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.1¢	$1.7K	$3.97	-$964.89	51% 2526-2431 (4957)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$2,022.01

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$198.87

Record

76%

22-7 (29)

RN1

Over

Invested

$446.23

Value

$642.35

PnL

+$196.12

Record

56%

4480-3454 (7934)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$913.71

Value

$58.36

PnL

-$504.71

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$105.6

Value

$19.55

PnL

-$86.04

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$12.35

Value

$18.13

PnL

+$9.12

Record

47%

1541-1714 (3255)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$9.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.9

Record

63%

27-16 (43)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$9.31

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$8.7

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$3.67

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,650.75

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$964.89

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.