Will TSV Havelse win on 2026-11-12?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 99¢ · $500 held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$499.71

Combined PnL

-$337.55

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$444.14

Total Shares447

Combined PnL-$6.29

Yes8 traders

Total Value$55.56

Total Shares3,358

Combined PnL-$331.26

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-89 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 95.5¢	$450.44	$444.14	-$6.29	55% 1636-1337 (2973)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$355.69	$49.07	-$306.62	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$6.16	$2.86	-$4.44	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$9.96	$1.43	-$8.53	50% 1216-1232 (2448)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$4.74	$1.35	-$3.39	41% 534-766 (1300)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$5.95	$0.37	-$5.58	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.42	$0.21	-$1.21	48% 488-534 (1022)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.42	$0.21	-$1.2	42% 836-1157 (1993)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.05	-$0.3	58% 477-346 (823)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$450.44

Value

$444.14

PnL

-$6.29

Record

55%

1636-1337 (2973)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$355.69

Value

$49.07

PnL

-$306.62

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.16

Value

$2.86

PnL

-$4.44

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.96

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$8.53

Record

50%

1216-1232 (2448)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.74

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$3.39

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.95

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$5.58

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.21

Record

48%

488-534 (1022)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.2

Record

42%

836-1157 (1993)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

477-346 (823)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-89 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.