Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-11-12?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $654 held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$653.89

Combined PnL

-$71.07

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 99.3¢

+30% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$636.78

Total Shares607

Combined PnL-$47.07

No4 traders

Total Value$17.11

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$24

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

81% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 78.1¢	$443.55	$336.55	-$107.01	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
SU suntori	Yesavg 78.5¢	$98.08	$124.06	+$25.98	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 73.4¢	$54.9	$62.88	+$7.98	55% 1636-1337 (2973)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 82.9¢	$33.54	$37.61	+$4.07	52% 183-166 (349)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$24.4	$37.6	+$13.2	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 72.5¢	$7.35	$9.53	+$2.18	62% 470-291 (761)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$18.9	$7.8	-$11.1	42% 22-30 (52)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 20.8¢	$14.68	$7.74	-$6.94	41% 534-766 (1300)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$3.67	$4.79	+$1.12	46% 539-625 (1164)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$3.71	$4.78	+$1.07	47% 522-594 (1116)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$3.7	$4.77	+$1.06	58% 477-346 (823)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$3.64	$4.76	+$1.11	42% 836-1157 (1993)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$3.63	$4.74	+$1.11	48% 488-534 (1022)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$3.67	$4.73	+$1.06	48% 506-556 (1062)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$5.6	$1.2	-$4.4	32% 289-611 (900)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 25.1¢	$19.27	$0.37	-$1.56	50% 1216-1232 (2448)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$443.55

Value

$336.55

PnL

-$107.01

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$98.08

Value

$124.06

PnL

+$25.98

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.9

Value

$62.88

PnL

+$7.98

Record

55%

1636-1337 (2973)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.54

Value

$37.61

PnL

+$4.07

Record

52%

183-166 (349)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.4

Value

$37.6

PnL

+$13.2

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.35

Value

$9.53

PnL

+$2.18

Record

62%

470-291 (761)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$11.1

Record

42%

22-30 (52)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$14.68

Value

$7.74

PnL

-$6.94

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.67

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$1.12

Record

46%

539-625 (1164)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.71

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$1.07

Record

47%

522-594 (1116)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$1.06

Record

58%

477-346 (823)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$1.11

Record

42%

836-1157 (1993)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.63

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$1.11

Record

48%

488-534 (1022)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.67

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

506-556 (1062)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$4.4

Record

32%

289-611 (900)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$19.27

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$1.56

Record

50%

1216-1232 (2448)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

81% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.