Will Hannover 96 vs. TSV Havelse end in a draw?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 98¢ · $429 held · ended Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$429.27

Combined PnL

-$16.61

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 98.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$421

Total Shares436

Combined PnL+$28.83

Yes6 traders

Total Value$8.27

Total Shares366

Combined PnL-$45.44

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 84.5¢	$271.61	$298.6	+$26.99	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 95¢	$64.59	$65.82	+$1.22	55% 1636-1337 (2973)
RN1<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$54.98	$55.41	+$0.43	56% 4471-3447 (7918)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$40.8	$4.72	-$36.08	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$5.55	$1.49	-$2.58	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 80¢	$0.99	$1.18	+$0.19	52% 746-692 (1438)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$3.85	$1.01	-$2.84	62% 470-289 (759)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.94	$0.43	-$0.51	41% 534-766 (1300)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$3.45	$0.37	-$3.07	46% 539-625 (1164)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.25	-$0.35	47% 522-594 (1116)

Flaznorp

Invested

$271.61

Value

$298.6

PnL

+$26.99

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$64.59

Value

$65.82

PnL

+$1.22

Record

55%

1636-1337 (2973)

RN1<$100

Invested

$54.98

Value

$55.41

PnL

+$0.43

Record

56%

4471-3447 (7918)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.8

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$36.08

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$2.58

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$0.99

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.19

Record

52%

746-692 (1438)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$2.84

Record

62%

470-289 (759)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.51

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$3.07

Record

46%

539-625 (1164)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.35

Record

47%

522-594 (1116)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.