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OverOver
RN1CTR<$100UnderUnderUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Arminia Bielefeld vs. SV Meppen 1912: O/U 0.5
Resolved Over. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$220.1
Combined PnL
-$10.29
Smart Money Signal
Under
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Over1 trader
Total Value$30.1
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$3.17
Under3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares174
Combined PnL-$7.13
Over — 25%Under — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 95.7¢ | $235.79 | $190 | -$45.78 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 95.7¢ | $181.77 | $190 | +$8.23 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 5.5¢ | $54.02 | — | -$54.02 | |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 95.6¢ | $33.27 | $30.1 | -$3.17 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 3.8¢ | $5.85 | — | -$5.85 | 56% 4482-3456 (7938) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 6.9¢ | $1.38 | — | -$1.38 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Underavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | +$0.1 | — 7-5 (12) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$235.79
Value
$190
PnL
-$45.78
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Both legs:
Over$181.7795.7¢+$8.23
Under$54.025.5¢-$54.02
GO
GoalLineGhost<$100Invested
$33.27
Value
$30.1
PnL
-$3.17
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$5.85
Value
—
PnL
-$5.85
Record
56%
4482-3456 (7938)
FE
ferdinand2CTR<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
—
PnL
-$1.38
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
CA
canupdatelateronCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
+$0.1
Record
—
7-5 (12)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x15d602a0...da5e8f
Slug
clf-dsc-mep-2026-11-12-total-0pt5