Will SV Meppen 1912 win on 2026-11-12?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$35.92

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 95.7¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,368

Combined PnL+$23.66

Yes5 traders

Total Value$57.4

Total Shares1,196

Combined PnL+$12.26

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$25.93	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
RN1	Noavg 84.9¢	$406.89	$456.47	+$49.58	56% 4480-3454 (7934)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$132.43	$57.72	-$74.71	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
└ No leg	Noavg 87¢	$32.06	$35.08	+$3.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.3¢	$100.37	$22.64	-$77.73
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$958.61	$50.29	+$28.9	47% 1541-1714 (3255)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.4¢	$14.63	$3.82	-$10.81	41% 543-780 (1323)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.6¢	$8.6	$2.11	-$6.49	60% 668-446 (1114)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$13.63	$1.05	-$2	50% 1226-1249 (2475)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2.4	$0.12	+$2.66	52% 754-704 (1458)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,876.19

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$25.93

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

RN1

Invested

$406.89

Value

$456.47

PnL

+$49.58

Record

56%

4480-3454 (7934)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$132.43

Value

$57.72

PnL

-$74.71

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Both legs:

No$32.0687¢+$3.02

Yes$100.3721.3¢-$77.73

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$958.61

Value

$50.29

PnL

+$28.9

Record

47%

1541-1714 (3255)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.63

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$10.81

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.6

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$6.49

Record

60%

668-446 (1114)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.63

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$2.66

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.