Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.6K
$2.02
98.1¢ → 99¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98¢ | $980 | $990 | +$10 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $480.21 | $484.11 | +$3.9 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $51.63 | $52.08 | +$0.45 | 56% 92-72 (164) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 | 41% 3104-4461 (7565) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $30 | $12.37 | -$12.37 | — 3-1 (4) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $4.96 | $5.01 | +$0.05 | 43% 347-453 (800) |
Invested
$980
Value
$990
PnL
+$10
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$480.21
Value
$484.11
PnL
+$3.9
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
Invested
$51.63
Value
$52.08
PnL
+$0.45
Record
56%
92-72 (164)
Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
3104-4461 (7565)
Invested
$30
Value
$12.37
PnL
-$12.37
Record
—
3-1 (4)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$5.01
PnL
+$0.05
Record
43%
347-453 (800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.