Will BK Hacken vs. Fredrikstad FK end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 98¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$285.98
-$4
92.6¢ → 98.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cypya | Yesavg 92¢ | $217.24 | $231.97 | +$14.73 | — 1-3 (4) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $25.04 | $25.11 | +$0.07 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $30 | $20 | -$10 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $13.05 | $8.7 | -$4.35 | 86% 36-6 (42) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $4.65 | $0.2 | -$4.45 | — 2-1 (3) |
CypyaInvested
$217.24
Value
$231.97
PnL
+$14.73
Record
—
1-3 (4)
Invested
$25.04
Value
$25.11
PnL
+$0.07
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
Invested
$30
Value
$20
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$4.35
Record
86%
36-6 (42)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$4.45
Record
—
2-1 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.