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archaicYes
MisTKy<$100Yes
Istaroth<$100YesNoNo
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president by March 31, 2027?
Resolved Yes. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 60%
Total Value
$538.9
Combined PnL
$0.9
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$538.9
Total Shares539
Combined PnL+$5.5
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares40
Combined PnL-$4.6
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
archaic | Yesavg 99.1¢ | $451.46 | $455.56 | +$4.1 | 85% 1874-338 (2212) |
MisTKy<$100 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $61.74 | $63.34 | +$1.6 | 71% 555-229 (784) |
Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $0.6 | — | -$0.6 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
archaicInvested
$451.46
Value
$455.56
PnL
+$4.1
Record
85%
1874-338 (2212)
MisTKy<$100Invested
$61.74
Value
$63.34
PnL
+$1.6
Record
71%
555-229 (784)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
74
0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5b61b24c...140433
Slug
christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-by-march-31-2027