Will San Luis de Quillota win on 2026-11-15?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 33%
$1.5K
$56.07
48.4¢ → 55.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-34 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 48¢ | $687.4 | $795.02 | +$107.62 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 50¢ | $307.59 | $266.99 | -$33.35 | 53% 1989-1729 (3718) |
 tradecraft | Yesavg 51¢ | $126.56 | $137.73 | +$11.17 | 35% 516-946 (1462) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Noavg 52¢ | $112.84 | $96.57 | -$16.28 | 38% 1416-2272 (3688) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $85.48 | $77.77 | -$7.71 | 52% 2587-2373 (4960) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.6¢ | $51.73 | $47.35 | -$4.38 | 38% 1425-2328 (3753) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $20.68 | $22.44 | +$1.76 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $23.6 | $21.43 | -$2.17 | 40% 160-236 (396) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.25 | -$0.6 | 38% 1425-2300 (3725) |
Invested
$687.4
Value
$795.02
PnL
+$107.62
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$307.59
Value
$266.99
PnL
-$33.35
Record
53%
1989-1729 (3718)
tradecraftInvested
$126.56
Value
$137.73
PnL
+$11.17
Record
35%
516-946 (1462)
Invested
$112.84
Value
$96.57
PnL
-$16.28
Record
38%
1416-2272 (3688)
Invested
$85.48
Value
$77.77
PnL
-$7.71
Record
52%
2587-2373 (4960)
Invested
$51.73
Value
$47.35
PnL
-$4.38
Record
38%
1425-2328 (3753)
Invested
$20.68
Value
$22.44
PnL
+$1.76
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
Invested
$23.6
Value
$21.43
PnL
-$2.17
Record
40%
160-236 (396)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$0.6
Record
38%
1425-2300 (3725)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.