Will Deportes Iquique win on 2026-11-15?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 80¢ · $318 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$317.94
$3.43
67.3¢ → 80¢
+19% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $85.74 | $95.67 | +$9.93 | 38% 1454-2390 (3844) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $79.71 | $86.25 | +$6.54 | 38% 1462-2368 (3830) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $60.78 | $50.58 | -$10.2 | 52% 2600-2381 (4981) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $37.75 | $35.88 | -$1.87 | 48% 4844-5167 (10011) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $18.37 | $17.99 | -$0.38 | 38% 1433-2333 (3766) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $13.7 | +$0.1 | 36% 525-952 (1477) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $8.43 | $7.74 | -$0.69 | 38% 1445-2329 (3774) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.2 | $7.15 | -$0.05 | 48% 2668-2892 (5560) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $1.89 | $1.92 | +$0.03 | 54% 2045-1764 (3809) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.04 | $1.05 | +$0.01 | 46% 3434-3964 (7398) |
Invested
$85.74
Value
$95.67
PnL
+$9.93
Record
38%
1454-2390 (3844)
Invested
$79.71
Value
$86.25
PnL
+$6.54
Record
38%
1462-2368 (3830)
Invested
$60.78
Value
$50.58
PnL
-$10.2
Record
52%
2600-2381 (4981)
Invested
$37.75
Value
$35.88
PnL
-$1.87
Record
48%
4844-5167 (10011)
Invested
$18.37
Value
$17.99
PnL
-$0.38
Record
38%
1433-2333 (3766)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
$13.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
36%
525-952 (1477)
Invested
$8.43
Value
$7.74
PnL
-$0.69
Record
38%
1445-2329 (3774)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.15
PnL
-$0.05
Record
48%
2668-2892 (5560)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.89
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
2045-1764 (3809)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
46%
3434-3964 (7398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.