Will Deportes Recoleta vs. Deportes Iquique end in a draw?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (10%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 10%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$18.61

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$908

Total Shares1,306

Combined PnL-$9.68

Yes9 traders

Total Value$480.6

Total Shares1,646

Combined PnL-$8.93

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 70.2¢	$917.67	$908	-$9.68	52% 2600-2381 (4981)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 29.6¢	$275.05	$287.71	+$12.66	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$44.94	$45.74	+$0.8	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$42.58	$44.7	+$2.13	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.9¢	$51.89	$38.58	-$13.31	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$41.47	$28.76	-$12.71	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.3¢	$17.29	$18.26	+$0.96	36% 525-952 (1477)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.7¢	$6.59	$6.89	+$0.3	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$5.8	$6.1	+$0.3	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$3.92	$3.85	-$0.07	21% 44-169 (213)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$917.67

Value

$908

PnL

-$9.68

Record

52%

2600-2381 (4981)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$275.05

Value

$287.71

PnL

+$12.66

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.94

Value

$45.74

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.58

Value

$44.7

PnL

+$2.13

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.89

Value

$38.58

PnL

-$13.31

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.47

Value

$28.76

PnL

-$12.71

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.29

Value

$18.26

PnL

+$0.96

Record

36%

525-952 (1477)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.59

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$0.3

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.07

Record

21%

44-169 (213)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.