CD Cobreloa Calama vs. Puerto Montt: O/U 3.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 94¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$203.59

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 93.5¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,887

Combined PnL+$546.45

Over4 traders

Total Value$306.69

Total Shares1,903

Combined PnL-$342.86

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 72.3¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$460.52	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 66.6¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$77.79	52% 2600-2380 (4980)
MO mouzsynapseARB<$100	Underavg 69¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$7.35	41% 174-251 (425)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$16.51
└ Over leg	Overavg 31¢	$739.72	$763.58	+$23.86
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 34.5¢	$592	$240.35	-$351.65	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 65.3¢	$209.55	$218.66	+$9.11	59% 764-531 (1295)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 93.3¢	$112	$111.6	-$0.4	77% 398-118 (516)
NO NotJump	Underavg 50¢	$105	$105	+$0	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$28.06	$35.71	+$7.65	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$27.03	$27.49	+$0.47	41% 1224-1758 (2982)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 62¢	$8.91	$8.33	-$0.57	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$2.46	$3.13	+$0.67	35% 674-1226 (1900)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,367.35

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$460.52

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,213.76

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$77.79

Record

52%

2600-2380 (4980)

mouzsynapseARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,878.93

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$7.35

Record

41%

174-251 (425)

Both legs:

Under$1,139.2269¢-$16.51

Over$739.7231¢+$23.86

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$592

Value

$240.35

PnL

-$351.65

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$209.55

Value

$218.66

PnL

+$9.11

Record

59%

764-531 (1295)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$112

Value

$111.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

77%

398-118 (516)

NotJump

Under

Invested

$105

Value

$105

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.06

Value

$35.71

PnL

+$7.65

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.03

Value

$27.49

PnL

+$0.47

Record

41%

1224-1758 (2982)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$8.91

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0.57

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.46

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.67

Record

35%

674-1226 (1900)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.