Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CD Cobreloa Calama vs. Puerto Montt: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 40¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$88.76

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 39.5¢

-31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$686.18

Total Shares1,309

Combined PnL-$126.36

Under5 traders

Total Value$781.84

Total Shares1,350

Combined PnL+$215.12

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$784.72	$637.86	-$146.85	52% 2600-2380 (4980)
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.9¢	$223.14	$425.61	+$202.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.2¢	$561.57	$212.25	-$349.32
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 56.9¢	$653.53	$547.15	-$106.38	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 42¢	$263.71	$345.33	+$81.62	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
LO lonmi2511ARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$291.97	$297.51	+$5.54	59% 764-531 (1295)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$165.58	$175.75	+$10.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$126.38	$121.76	-$4.62
LI Limousin	Underavg 42.7¢	$158.85	$249.19	+$90.34	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 42.4¢	$108.34	$150.84	+$42.49	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 56.9¢	$98	$77.53	-$20.47	56% 703-543 (1246)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$58.76	$59.25	+$0.49	41% 1224-1758 (2982)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 37¢	$40.19	$33.85	+$0.89	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.63	-$0.23	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.25	+$0	78% 833-236 (1069)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$784.72

Value

$637.86

PnL

-$146.85

Record

52%

2600-2380 (4980)

Both legs:

Under$223.1440.9¢+$202.46

Over$561.5758.2¢-$349.32

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$653.53

Value

$547.15

PnL

-$106.38

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$263.71

Value

$345.33

PnL

+$81.62

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

lonmi2511ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$291.97

Value

$297.51

PnL

+$5.54

Record

59%

764-531 (1295)

Both legs:

Over$165.5857¢+$10.17

Under$126.3841¢-$4.62

Limousin

Under

Invested

$158.85

Value

$249.19

PnL

+$90.34

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$108.34

Value

$150.84

PnL

+$42.49

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98

Value

$77.53

PnL

-$20.47

Record

56%

703-543 (1246)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58.76

Value

$59.25

PnL

+$0.49

Record

41%

1224-1758 (2982)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$40.19

Value

$33.85

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0

Record

78%

833-236 (1069)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.