Will Puerto Montt win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 67¢ · $857 held · ended Nov 15

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$857

Combined PnL

-$176.74

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 66.6¢

-30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$632.23

Total Shares784

Combined PnL-$135.9

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.92

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL-$40.84

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 96¢	$437.34	$304.54	-$132.8	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
LO lonmi2511ARB<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$249.27	$216.85	+$36.94	59% 764-531 (1295)
└ No leg	Noavg 96.1¢	$168.98	$117.52	-$51.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.6¢	$10.85	$99.33	+$88.48
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95.7¢	$335.66	$120.97	-$9.91	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 96¢	$69.36	$70.8	+$1.44	35% 674-1226 (1900)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 93¢	$47.24	$49.27	+$2.03	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$43.95	$46.94	+$2.99	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$39.36	$39.7	+$0.34	77% 398-118 (516)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$47.47	$7.42	-$40.04	52% 2600-2380 (4980)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.3	$0.3	+$0	42% 771-1083 (1854)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1	$0.2	-$0.8	48% 2658-2887 (5545)

Venusian

Invested

$437.34

Value

$304.54

PnL

-$132.8

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

lonmi2511ARB<$100

Invested

$249.27

Value

$216.85

PnL

+$36.94

Record

59%

764-531 (1295)

Both legs:

No$168.9896.1¢-$51.54

Yes$10.853.6¢+$88.48

Flaznorp

Invested

$335.66

Value

$120.97

PnL

-$9.91

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$69.36

Value

$70.8

PnL

+$1.44

Record

35%

674-1226 (1900)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$47.24

Value

$49.27

PnL

+$2.03

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$43.95

Value

$46.94

PnL

+$2.99

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$39.36

Value

$39.7

PnL

+$0.34

Record

77%

398-118 (516)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.47

Value

$7.42

PnL

-$40.04

Record

52%

2600-2380 (4980)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

771-1083 (1854)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.7%

66.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.