Will CD Cobreloa Calama win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$26.57

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 98.7¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,407

Combined PnL-$143.52

No3 traders

Total Value$339.42

Total Shares991

Combined PnL+$170.08

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 84.9¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$147.93	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
LO lonmi2511ARB<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$588.02	$602.47	+$14.45	59% 764-531 (1295)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83¢	$444.16	$436.13	-$8.03
└ No leg	Noavg 16¢	$143.86	$166.34	+$22.48
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 18.2¢	$133.4	$321.7	+$188.29	52% 2600-2380 (4980)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 95.1¢	$76.99	$69.65	-$7.34	78% 833-236 (1069)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$48.61	$55.46	+$6.85	56% 703-543 (1246)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$43.5	$31.52	-$0.01	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 70.3¢	$25.94	$30.18	+$4.24	35% 520-949 (1469)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$17.12	$15.83	-$1.29	41% 1224-1758 (2982)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$3.3	$3.97	+$0.67	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$18.81	$1.89	-$16.92	35% 674-1226 (1900)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,360.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$147.93

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

lonmi2511ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$588.02

Value

$602.47

PnL

+$14.45

Record

59%

764-531 (1295)

Both legs:

Yes$444.1683¢-$8.03

No$143.8616¢+$22.48

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$133.4

Value

$321.7

PnL

+$188.29

Record

52%

2600-2380 (4980)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.99

Value

$69.65

PnL

-$7.34

Record

78%

833-236 (1069)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.61

Value

$55.46

PnL

+$6.85

Record

56%

703-543 (1246)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.5

Value

$31.52

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.94

Value

$30.18

PnL

+$4.24

Record

35%

520-949 (1469)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$17.12

Value

$15.83

PnL

-$1.29

Record

41%

1224-1758 (2982)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.67

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$16.92

Record

35%

674-1226 (1900)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.