Will Jiangxi Dingnan United win on 2026-11-07?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
$109.78
36.8¢ → 70.5¢
+92% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$210.69 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60¢ | $745.97 | $876.01 | +$130.04 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $716.97 | $376.24 | -$340.73 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $466.93 | $458.82 | -$8.11 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38¢ | $330.49 | $308.9 | -$21.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.7¢ | $136.44 | $149.92 | +$13.48 | |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 27¢ | $135.89 | $320.04 | +$184.15 | 57% 2106-1559 (3665) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 64.3¢ | $124.08 | $122.83 | -$1.24 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 74¢ | $144.3 | $71.18 | -$73.13 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
Invested
$1,462.94
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$210.69
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Both legs:
Invested
$466.93
Value
$458.82
PnL
-$8.11
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Both legs:
oieshfn345Invested
$135.89
Value
$320.04
PnL
+$184.15
Record
57%
2106-1559 (3665)
Invested
$124.08
Value
$122.83
PnL
-$1.24
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
RN1CTRInvested
$144.3
Value
$71.18
PnL
-$73.13
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.