Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Nanjing City win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 0.5¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$4.2K
-$394.61
64.1¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 22.8¢ | $643.11 | $2.2K | +$1.5K | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 58¢ | $2.5K | $1.0K | $-1.4K | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $324.15 | $651.84 | +$327.69 | 57% 2106-1559 (3665) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 74.6¢ | $1.2K | $375.88 | -$817.86 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $16.3 | $4.7 | -$11.6 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
Invested
$643.11
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Invested
$2,454.58
Value
$1.0K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
oieshfn345Invested
$324.15
Value
$651.84
PnL
+$327.69
Record
57%
2106-1559 (3665)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,193.74
Value
$375.88
PnL
-$817.86
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$16.3
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$11.6
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.