Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.8K
$158.07
87.8¢ → 93¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 92¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.93 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 87.2¢ | $998.35 | $1.1K | +$65.77 | 50% 28862-28672 (57534) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 84.2¢ | $778.98 | $860.51 | +$81.53 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $271.84 | $308.76 | +$36.92 | 57% 2106-1559 (3665) |
WI Winning2...CTR | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $251.04 | $210 | -$41.04 | 33% 1167-2394 (3561) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.18 | -$0.03 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
RN1Invested
$1,377.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.93
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
Invested
$998.35
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$65.77
Record
50%
28862-28672 (57534)
Invested
$778.98
Value
$860.51
PnL
+$81.53
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
oieshfn345Invested
$271.84
Value
$308.76
PnL
+$36.92
Record
57%
2106-1559 (3665)
Invested
$251.04
Value
$210
PnL
-$41.04
Record
33%
1167-2394 (3561)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.