Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CF Universidad de Chile, while the market favors CD Cobresal (62%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold CF Universidad de Chile (33%) · CF Universidad de Chile at 38¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
CF Universidad de Chile
6
CF Universidad de Chile 33%
1 arb excluded
$27.8K
$4.0K
56.8¢ → 38¢
-33% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCF Universidad de Chile at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors CD Cobresal 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on CF Universidad de Chile. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GetsOnBaseCTR | CF Universidad de Chileavg 56.8¢ | $14.2K | $18.4K | +$4.2K | — 3-0 (3) |
FL Flaznorp | CD Cobresalavg 43.1¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$57.16 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1 | CD Cobresalavg 43¢ | $3.6K | $3.5K | -$50 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | CD Cobresalavg 43.4¢ | $994.55 | $946.28 | -$48.28 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
| └ CD Cobresal leg | CD Cobresalavg 43.4¢ | $1.2K | $737.22 | -$51.94 | |
| └ CF Universidad de Chile leg | CF Universidad de Chileavg 57.7¢ | $164.12 | $209.06 | +$3.67 | |
 VeryLucky888 | CD Cobresalavg 44¢ | $522 | $477 | -$45 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
BI biying99999<$100 | CD Cobresalavg 43.5¢ | $59.59 | $36.31 | -$23.28 | 47% 150-168 (318) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | CF Universidad de Chileavg 55¢ | $9.17 | $11.14 | +$1.97 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
GetsOnBaseCTRInvested
$14,206.28
Value
$18.4K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
—
3-0 (3)
Invested
$4,478.53
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$57.16
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1Invested
$3,600
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$50
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$994.55
Value
$946.28
PnL
-$48.28
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$522
Value
$477
PnL
-$45
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$59.59
Value
$36.31
PnL
-$23.28
Record
47%
150-168 (318)
Invested
$9.17
Value
$11.14
PnL
+$1.97
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.