CD Universidad Católica vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 93¢ · $612 held · ended Nov 1

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$611.57

Combined PnL

$4.2

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 93¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$566.93

Total Shares610

Combined PnL+$7.96

Over2 traders

Total Value$44.64

Total Shares638

Combined PnL-$3.76

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 93¢	$484.72	$484.72	+$0	72% 2545-973 (3518)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 84¢	$74.25	$82.21	+$7.96	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 7.6¢	$48.54	$44.49	-$4.06	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$1.17	$0.15	+$0.29	52% 7507-6801 (14308)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$484.72

Value

$484.72

PnL

+$0

Record

72%

2545-973 (3518)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$74.25

Value

$82.21

PnL

+$7.96

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.54

Value

$44.49

PnL

-$4.06

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.29

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.