Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CD Universidad de Concepción vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 13¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
$208.38
29.6¢ → 12.5¢
-58% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$167.68 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
SE sentrioCTR | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $233.47 | $232.79 | -$0.67 | 50% 27970-27422 (55392) |
 RN1 | Noavg 67¢ | $137.37 | $181.45 | +$44.08 | 53% 70249-61821 (132070) |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $96.35 | $99.05 | +$2.7 | 57% 22246-16603 (38849) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $51.98 | $52.37 | +$0.38 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67¢ | $44.36 | $46.68 | +$2.32 | |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $84.24 | $80.06 | -$4.18 | 50% 65492-65807 (131299) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $109.6 | $76.3 | -$33.3 | 58% 22573-16672 (39245) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85.1¢ | $51.47 | $53.53 | +$2.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $58.13 | $22.77 | -$35.36 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $11.9 | $13.2 | +$1.3 | 59% 52427-37141 (89568) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.58 | +$0.18 | 52% 9525-8636 (18161) |
Invested
$1,355.79
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$167.68
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$233.47
Value
$232.79
PnL
-$0.67
Record
50%
27970-27422 (55392)
RN1Invested
$137.37
Value
$181.45
PnL
+$44.08
Record
53%
70249-61821 (132070)
Invested
$96.35
Value
$99.05
PnL
+$2.7
Record
57%
22246-16603 (38849)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.24
Value
$80.06
PnL
-$4.18
Record
50%
65492-65807 (131299)
Invested
$109.6
Value
$76.3
PnL
-$33.3
Record
58%
22573-16672 (39245)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$11.9
Value
$13.2
PnL
+$1.3
Record
59%
52427-37141 (89568)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.18
Record
52%
9525-8636 (18161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.