Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-11-08?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 68¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$194.33

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 67.5¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares11,400

Combined PnL+$194.25

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.58

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.08

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 66¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$100	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 67¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$35.66	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 66.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$24	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
NM NM-P	Noavg 66.5¢	$654.21	$668.58	+$14.37	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-P	Noavg 66.4¢	$546.27	$560.06	+$13.79	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 67¢	$214.4	$217.6	+$3.2	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 66¢	$26.52	$27.32	+$0.8	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 66¢	$26.51	$27.31	+$0.8	46% 6185-7387 (13572)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 66¢	$26.5	$27.3	+$0.8	46% 6880-8136 (15016)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 66¢	$26.42	$27.22	+$0.8	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.4	$3.43	+$0.03	52% 9515-8627 (18142)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.5	$1.58	+$0.08	50% 27958-27406 (55364)

RN1

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$100

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,827.03

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$35.66

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,070.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$24

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

NM-P

Invested

$654.21

Value

$668.58

PnL

+$14.37

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-P

Invested

$546.27

Value

$560.06

PnL

+$13.79

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

cigarettes

Invested

$214.4

Value

$217.6

PnL

+$3.2

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$26.52

Value

$27.32

PnL

+$0.8

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$26.51

Value

$27.31

PnL

+$0.8

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

$27.3

PnL

+$0.8

Record

46%

6880-8136 (15016)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$26.42

Value

$27.22

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.