Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-11-05?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$602.92

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 98.7¢

+16% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,417

Combined PnL+$339.99

Yes5 traders

Total Value$16.49

Total Shares1,178

Combined PnL+$262.93

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoff	Noavg 75¢	$932.58	$1.2K	+$293.45	51% 174-169 (343)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 93.6¢	$741.6	$690.07	+$40.58	61% 925-599 (1524)
KO korda77	Noavg 97.6¢	$291.06	$294.08	+$3.02	44% 6563-8231 (14794)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$58.61	$59.76	+$1.15	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 96.7¢	$140.5	$47.95	+$0.89	47% 2242-2511 (4753)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$76.25	$38.11	+$0.69	41% 1142-1647 (2789)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$16.96	$16.91	-$0.05	42% 1214-1705 (2919)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$18.93	$7.67	-$11.26	20% 2639-10442 (13081)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$42.8	$5.03	+$0.2	55% 4477-3683 (8160)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$64.03	$5	+$0.05	47% 1706-1889 (3595)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$4.35	$4.35	-$99.16	72% 14121-5435 (19556)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$48.8	$3.29	+$386.81	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$3.19	$0.76	-$2.78	50% 21032-21299 (42331)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$11.1	$0.42	-$10.68	58% 46107-33290 (79397)

roscoff

Invested

$932.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$293.45

Record

51%

174-169 (343)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$741.6

Value

$690.07

PnL

+$40.58

Record

61%

925-599 (1524)

korda77

Invested

$291.06

Value

$294.08

PnL

+$3.02

Record

44%

6563-8231 (14794)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$58.61

Value

$59.76

PnL

+$1.15

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$140.5

Value

$47.95

PnL

+$0.89

Record

47%

2242-2511 (4753)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$76.25

Value

$38.11

PnL

+$0.69

Record

41%

1142-1647 (2789)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$16.96

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

1214-1705 (2919)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.93

Value

$7.67

PnL

-$11.26

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$42.8

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

4477-3683 (8160)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$64.03

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

1706-1889 (3595)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$99.16

Record

72%

14121-5435 (19556)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.8

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$386.81

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.19

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$2.78

Record

50%

21032-21299 (42331)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.1

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$10.68

Record

58%

46107-33290 (79397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.